Vikram’s new Diwali

We live in an age that’s called Vikram. Meaning one that has a strong stride or momentum. The stock markets certainly looked like that leading into the onset of Samvat 2067, the Hindu new year that befell most parts of India this Diwali. Astrologers, who are in demand during such auspicious times dole out their forecasts busily. Actually, astrologers are quite active in India during other times as well. They can predict market movements as well. There are intra-day prophecies, NIFTY vedic tips, astrological commodity futures, currency trading, etc. ‘Astrotraders’ idolise W. D. Gann and perhaps follow his theories. I read an astro forecast of the market technicals just before typing this post and the head reeled!

The head had reeled in a similar way during previous Diwali owing to the incessant din of firecrackers in the area where I (also) stay in Bombay. This year, suprisingly was quite sedate in comparision. Is that an indicator? I know not. Many people I know logged in during the special one hour Muhurat trading window that remains open on this holiday and did some token trades. Many traders in India believe that if the one hour Muhurat trading closes positive, then the year ahead is going to be gainful. That certainly seems to be a popular indicator. The intra-hour chart of this year’s Muhurat trading is above – please draw out your conclusions and your chequebooks accordingly!

I am sure many Muhurat eyes must have travelled to the fireworks on the Coal India Limited counter. It had listed a day before Diwali and as I and everyone else expected, the listing was a bang. I winged out with a 40% gain in 15 days. As I had written in a previous post, I had expected to make a modest 15% which was easily surpassed. It was money on the table really – like the time when the Ambanis had decided to split up and create listed baby Reliances for some serious value unlocking. Except that in case of reasonably priced, popular and monopolistic businesses, the bang for the buck comes in double quick time. On my part I continued to stare at Gitanjali Gems chart and given the festive spirit could not resist putting up the two images above – one is the price chart of GG and the other is the trajectory of a Diwali rocket. Which is which?

I did not put in any trades nor did I unwind any – just skimmed and glossed over the tickers and then sat down for Laxmi (Goddess of wealth a la Copia-the Roman & Renenet-the Egyptian ) Puja. To many, such astrological prognostications may seem utter madness. I, on my part certainly do believe in astrology but not in its predictive powers about the collective writ of humanity (and even some machines) that is the market. But then a few days after Diwali, I read somewhere that Leos would benefit the most this year if they wore yellow (which I did by chance) and faced north during Laxmi Puja (I faced east). So, if I go by that then I will remain flat this year? :)

Here’s wishing you a very profitable trading year ahead. More importantly, here’s wishing you that you increase your knowledge and learn many new things about investing/trading this year. That’s key to making money, I feel.

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About Kaushal
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