Rupee’s “stable” symbol

02-Aug-10 3 Comments

It was good to see our currency getting a formal symbol in the midst of all talk and nervousness about inflation. While D. Udaya Kumar scrawls himself into history’s books for designing the symbol, I have my own take on the symbol and what is symbolises. Some people felt that using Devanagiri script is anti-non Devanagiri India and I feel that they are loco. My problem is that Ms. Ambika Soni used the design to explain the underlying stability of the Indian currency. What stability? I am not able to understand. Inflation is running so very high and controlling the currency is like riding (and trying to tame) a wild horse. I am a bit slow in these things.

But what I do know is that some of the factors that determine currency stability are : A) enough liquidity and cushioning in the local banking systems, B) the accompanying political landscape is stable, C) inflation is under control, D) legal systems are strong. If these ingredients are not in synch, the currency may topple over. Since symbols represent the inherent qualities of a currency and since the currency is a barometer of the strength of an economy, let’s use reverse logic to check if the chosen symbol for the INR does indicate stability. Let’s at least check if the symbol chosen for the INR is stable in the first place. We’ll might also take a look at the stability factors of the major world currencies while we are at it.

The concept of center of mass, borrowed from physics indicates the center of any shape, however weird it may be. If you make a 3 dimensional solid out of any basic shape, such a shape should be able to spin around it’s axis – and keep spinning if friction were absent. In the real world, friction and restraining forces constantly act on physical bodies. Let’s examine each major currency symbol (click on symbol to magnify), as if it’s 3 dimensional figure were standing on the world platform and see how it respondes to forces of inter-country friction, asset bubbles, financial profligacy, etc – all being represented by the testing forces of friction (cost of being a world currency on the world platform) and gravity.

JPY GBP INR USD EUR
Stable. But one nudge and it’ll topple over left or right – i.e. to China or the U.S.A Very stable!! Stodgy and just may not budge. Won’t be able to withstand it’s own weight. Will topple over Stable. But one nudge and it’ll topple over. Already fighting it’s 200DMA Will fall down right. If only the horizontal railroads began from further left.

I recommend that you do not take such advise when initiating positions on currency movements! BTW, you don’t have to be a financial whiz kid or a professional trader to initiate positions in world currencies. Just your decision to take up a job in India’s software industry makes you terribly short on the INR. 

Anyway, I like the symbol – whether it is stable or not. I like it since the Big B has requested that it be featured in the logo of the next edition of his show – KBC. I like it despite the fact that it looks like a bastard child borne out of the union of the Devanagiri Ra and the Latin R. I like it despite the fact that it gave me a kink in the neck. I wanted to see if there is some Dan Brownish hidden symbolism in it’s meaning. I craned my neck up and down, held up my laptop at weird angles for that aha! moment but all I got was a sprain in my neck. See, there is massive hidden meaning in the symbol of the EUR. What happens when you tilt the EUR by 90 degrees? You get something similar to this! Hinting at the intrigue and various games that the continent has always been a stage for. Then there was that story of the WTC attack being foretold in a USD 20 dollar bill.

Actually, if you are lean that way and incline yourself physically that way as well, you might just spot this in our currency symbol. Hardly something to associate free capitalism with! 🙂

But considering the fact that cigarettes, tulips, spices, cows, et al have all served as good currencies in the past, I do not think we should have any problem with this tilted masterpiece.

Symbolism apart, the real concern that should play on the minds of our policymakers is the runaway inflation that’s on us at the moment. I was in Mumbai over the weekend and just could not believe the amount I had to pay for just 250 grams of okra, a kilo of tomatoes, a suspicious looking floret of cauliflower. Around a 100 INR! Prices of food and related stuff are increasing @ 20% per annum. So are costs of education and medicine. Eating out has become crazily expensive. So, what I am saying is that the INR is not fiat currency. Far from it. Just that inflation is making things difficult. Very difficult. And the people in charge need to change many more things than just the symbol of the INR.

Did you know that the Vietnamese currency is known as the Dong? And that frugal Vietnamese women really know how to stretch one to the hilt? 😐 The symbol for their currency looks a bit sexual as well.

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Pathways of fate

27-Jul-10 4 Comments

Two roads converged in the woods and I took the one less travelled. And that does not seem to have made any difference! 🙂 🙂 🙂

In fact even Robert Frost, whose poem “The Road Less Travelled”, admitted that if he were to retrace his path and were to come upon that same fork, he was not sure if would make the same choice yet again.

Some poems, stories, books stay with you. Floating around in your subconscious. This is one such poem that I remember from my school days. I cannot recite the entire poem in one go, but I remember the theme and the imagery that it had left in my mind back then. “The Pied Piper of Hamelyn”, “The Highwayman”, “Hiawatha’s Wooing”, “Satpura ke Ghane Jungle“, “Jhansi ki Rani” are some of the others.

Speaking of personal paths, I had drawn the locus of my movements on Earth sometime back. In my much younger days, decisions of my elders moved me around on the paths that I was takinng. There was no questioning and full trust. And i have had a whale of a time. Later on, as I entered the last few years of my teens, the path that I took have largely been my doing – with useful help and advise from others. So if I should regret, its on me. If I should celebrate, its on me.

Here’s how my domestic path looks like. These are the cities that I have been to, spent time working and/or visiting. From all these places I have learnt something. Some good things, some bad. Transit cities are not shown. So, for example if my journey takes me to Xanadu en route to El Dorado, I would not show the former on the map.

And below is how my international footprint looks like. A lot to cover, a lot to learn. When a group of us friends had decided to take a snowed in break in Auli (Uttaranchal) we had met a guy who had been to 120 countries. One of us had wondered aloud if those many countries even existed in the first place. With the collapse of the Soviet Union and the formation of the various stans, I am sure this guy would’ve been thrilled. More to add to his travelogue. His Fodors was expectedly, very frayed.

So often we hear ourselves or our friends, associates fret and muse about choices and chances missed. About milk spilt. BTW, I don’t feel bad about any milk that’s spilled – because A) AMUL is not listed and B) I hate milk more than I hate luv storys. Coming back to the sombre mood, many of us love to regret, retrace and draw out imaginary probabilistic paths of alternate realities. Good fuel to feed the fire.

Does the Buddhist Baggio regret not hitting the target during the penalty shoot out against Brazil in the 1994 FIFA World Cup? Columbian Andres Escobar was not even allowed to be around to regret his faux pas of scoring an own goal against the USA in the same tournament. He was shot. And then some personal anecdotes that I have lent a sympathetic ear to:

“If only I had listened to my inner voice and pursued architecture from Sir. J.J. School of Art, I’d have been so much more successful. But my father wanted me to be an engineer”.

 

“Kaash hum kuch aur padh lete bachpan mein. Hum bhi private gaadi ke driver hote, parking attendant nahi. Driver hone ke liye kabhi kabhi angrezi aani chahiye“. (I wish I could have studied. I would also be a chauffeur today instead of a parking lot attendant. Sometimes, knowledge of English is required of a chauffeur).

 

“If only I had waited for the birth of my son. I would not have to give up a promising career and become a housewife”.

Charles Dickens gives us young ‘uns some hope when he says that “Regrets are the natural property of grey hairs”. But then there is a perplexing (to me) remark from Henry David Thoreau telling us that “To regret deeply is to live afresh”.

 

Here are two paintings – which one is regret and which one is sorrow?

        

 

 

Sorrow and regret seem to be two sides of the same coin. Maybe nothing cleaves the two. But regret is not the same as guilt. See the painting alongside – is it regret or sorrow or guilt?

 

 

One lesson that I have learnt from my investment related readings is this: When life gives you lemons, don’t make lemonade. Just cut your lemons (i.e. losses) and run.

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Saina’s Interim Success

18-Jul-10 2 Comments

While I’m shuttling around the city of the nizams, searching for a place to stay there have been so many times that I’ve looked up to see posters felicitating Saina Nehwal for her feat of being one short of one. I guess most of us would have read or heard or seen somewhere about Saina getting to world number 2 (with 64,791.26 points) behind Wang Yihan of China.

China = 1, India = 2. Looks good.

If you have been following her comments, you’d know that she has taken measured steps and always achieved the incremental targets that she and her coach, P. Gopichand have set for her. Last year she said,

“For the next year, my target is to break into the top 5 and also make my mark in the All England, World Championships and Super Series events.”

She’s gotten there. At least the ranking part. And now she says,

“It will be difficult to hold on to the ranking but I hope to continue my hard work and win more titles and become the number one player soon.”

But there is a concern. Is this her peak? Or will she head higher. I am sure no one will be answer that – not even Saina, but we’ve seen her ‘homophone-nym’, i.e Sania fizzle out. There so much more to aim for – the coming Olympic gold notwithstanding. But the best part is that she seems to be carrying a very mature head on her 20 yr old shoulder. In a recent interview she said:

“I have been training very hard and with more hard work I am sure to reach the top. I want to stay focused at my game to become number one. It is important for me to make my country proud.”

I particularly noted the phrase “It is important for me to….”. I think she has been coached very well by her parents and Gopichand. I’m some 14-15 summers elder to her and I cannot find any immature volley in her statements. I’m sure fans and observers much elder to me would also feel the same.  There have been quite a lot of financial hardships behind this interim success of hers. Imagine having to spend ~50% of your monthly income on the training of your kid. That’s what her parents did. And when that was not enough, they withdrew from their accumulated Provident Fund savings. When asked why she did not take up tennis, she said:

“No. My first love is badminton. I’m often asked why I didn’t try tennis. Training in tennis is too expensive compared to badminton”

Wow. I like the approach to money. As of now, at least. Sonia made friends with Sania, hope she leaves Saina alone. The former friendly overtures were obvisouly intended to gain Muslim votes but what kind of votes can Saina bring? Jat votes from Haryana? Well, I don’t know for she appears to have stayed in Hyderabad most of her time. But things can change. Currently her ask would be in the range of 20 – 40 lakhs per ad. It can surely climb up to a crore per ad if she bags the numero uno position. I hope money won’t corrupt her game. She’s been promised 101 gold coins if she wins us the World Championship in Paris this August. Then there are the Commonwealth Games and the Asian Games due this year as well. Lets see. Gopichand had turned down endoresment offers from the cola companies citing moral resposibilities of sportsmen since they are role models. Maybe he did not want young Indians to take to colas or maybe the money offered was not good or maybe there was the political fear given the drama that kicked out the cola giants out of India and gave us our Thums Ups. Saina’s priorities seem to be clear:

“Todays generation wants to drink everything. I am also one of them. Gopi sir took a very brave decision because he believes if we do anything, the public follows. I don’t see it that way that if I drink, others will also start drinking it”

Very logical and all fine. I also agree with her observation that today’s generation wants to “drink everything”. But I only wish Saina to drink success and more success. Money or no money. It’s all understandable considering that her winnings have been very paltry till a few years back and most of her money was spent in telephone bills since she had to pick up the hundreds of congratulatory calls on her cellphone while being on international roaming! Its not funny really.

Track her please, whether you understand badminton or not. This kid, whose caller tune (till some time back at least) used to a peppy Punjabi number, is the purest and totaly deserving world class sports performance to come out from this land of over 1 billion. How I wish India is a world beater in a team game as well – cricket does NOT count as a team game at all.

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ctrl, SHIFT, delete

14-Jul-10 1 Comment

I am squeezing in a quick obligatory post since The Third I opens (i.e. has new posts) every 3rd day….

Shifted to Hyderabad – yesterday. New work. New chapter. At first glance, the city seems good….but to me, personally, the Maximum City is just that – max. Always.

Will be staying alone, so cooking, cleaning, etc get added to my resume! I do not have unfettered access to the internet to start off with, therefore this pathetic looking first post from a new city. Hope to get regular quickly. Got to go….need to find something to eat. Then to find someplace to stay.

BTW, have not even as much glanced at whats happened to the markets since Monday. Unless the floor has given in I think I’m good. It’s a virtue to develop – especially if you are deeply long equities. To develop the ability to breathe normally if one is shut off from the tickers for an extended period of time. And yet sleep blissfully. Learning that money should be driven by you and not the other way around.

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Paul

11-Jul-10 1 Comment

I’m dead tired and have no energy anywhere within me to keep my eyes open….tomorrow when I wake up, we will have a new world champion nation. Paul the Octopus says that the cup is heading towards Spain. I used the randbetween() function and it says Netherlands. My randbetween() function, correctly predicted the semi-final outcomes – just like Paul the O.

But now I might lose the plot. For Paul the O is never wrong, is he? Is it a he? How do you know an Octopus he from an Octopus she? w”ink”. Good luck Spain. And good luck Oranje. And good luck Paul.

Tell me, honestly: Why are you watching the final today?

  • To see history being made. (I majored in history, you see)
  •  Good sport. Important match.
  • time pass
  • Everybody else is watching. I’m a guy…so what if my favourite country is out…I like the sport.

I think for many, the real zing of the tournament died some days ago. I think I am correct. No?

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Mirror, Mirror on the Wall…

08-Jul-10 4 Comments

Some Asian women have cause to crinkle up their pretty noses. For the trusted mirror has turned out to be one heck of a fairweather friend. What is causing these cracks to appear? Well, it’s the fact that their menfolk are now asking the same question! We naturally assume the name Snow White to be belonging to the sex that’s conventionally and in literature referred to as the fairer sex. Not anymore. And it’s not some bunch of really white people living in the poles of this planet who are causing this paradigm to shift. It’s a tropical thing. The title of this post could very have been “Papa don’t Bleach”, but nothing like a fairy tale beginning to the end note that fairness creams are creeping into locker rooms. So that’s all in this post – still read on if you must. If you a guy, read ahead only if your mirror isn’t cracked and if you are a lady, read on to size up your new competition!

The craze to become fairer is catching on fast in certain parts of the world and cosmetic marketers have been busy biting their fair share of the male pancake.  I read somewhere that Indian men (some of them) as also their Japanese and Korean counterparts are squeezing fairness cream tubes in a collective frenzy. Japanese and Korean as well? I am not exaggerating, but to be fair I think I am getting too old and there’s an ever widening generation gap. Check out this video from YouTube which represents a random pick out of a bunch of home videos made by young strapping Indian men extolling the virtues of fairness creams. There are other such amateur flicks as well. If you are so inclined…

The company that played Pied Piper to legions of our sub-continent rats was Emami. Not great rats, small rats, lean rats, brawny rats as per the first line describing the rodent diversity of Hamelin. But more like the second: brown rats, black rats, grey rats and tawny rats. All following the modern Indian male dream of becoming fairer. In the early 2000s, Emami Industries carried out a survey based on a gender bender premise. The survey results must have come out on expected lines, for in 2005, Emami got our brothers and nephews and uncles out of the closet when “Fair and Handsome” was launched. This was followed by Fair and Lovely Menz Acitve by Hindustan Unilever. Lux’s 75 year old female bastion had to fall as the King Khan forcibly took that position as well when he took the plunge – into a bathtub filled with rose petals and the women receeding into the background. I think they were needed in the picture to make it look hetero. Emami’s contemporary ad during that bashful time was all about a guy sneaking into a girls’ hostel to steal a tube of fairness cream. He is caught and chastised by his friend who advises him to hoist his sail only when the wind is fair. Stealing into and from the dames’ dorm was no fair play. Our hero (ha ha ha) is advised to go and get his own tube of fairness goo. Finally, in an interview with NDTV, the Khan laid all speculation to rest when he declared that he was neither fair nor handsome. Rich and smart – oh yes, but those options were not given I guess. The print ads (and even the later television ones) posed this seemingly rhetorical question: “Hey man, are you using lipstick?” Followed by a revealing riposte: “Then why are you using fairness cream for females?”

I can very well see where this is going: “Hey man, are you wearing skirts? Then why are you using lipgloss meant for women?” yeeesh. A very disturbing (to me) survey got published by Gillete (in 2004, I think I read) which concluded that the average Indian male spent 20 minutes in front of the mirror as compared to 18 minutes for Indian women. I can live with that given that guys usually do not carry compacts and that shaving must be consuming a largish chunk of that 20 minutes. But I wouldn’t want to be in King Gillete’s camp repeating the survey on today’s Gen X, Y, XY, Z….whatever. Times have really changed and it seems that callous people like me are still in the dark. So as usual, I trawled a quick trawl on the net to catch up and get a fair crack of the whip. I eavesdropped:

To a poser regarding which is the best fairness cream for men on an internet discussion board:

“(a woman says) My husband uses Fair and Lovely Men’s Active and he says that it is effective”

“(a man says) For 1 month use Melacare by Ajanta (at night during sleep). Use Melalight by Nicholas – at day timing after 15 minutes. Use Photoban sunscreen (Note: do not expose yourself to the Sun by using this sunscreen. wait for 1/2 hours then go outside no problem). After one month please do not use these cream. Then use  1 Melaglow by Nicholas at Night and daytime use Photoban sunscreen. For better result use Bright Night (at night time (on alternate days)) and wash it after 1/2 hours and use Melaglow. thats it you will get fairer skin”

I rest my case. BTW, I was wondering who is this Nicholas by Night fellow? If he uses his own medicine he must be glowing like a firefly in the night, no?

Whatever happened to tall, dark and the handsome (TDH)? It’s a western concept. At one level, it seems to be a case of the serpent chasing its own tail – Asians want to be whiter while the Westerners keep flocking to tanning stations to become TDH. Therefore here in Asia, TDH seems to have gotten changed to  fair and handsome! Cutural cleft or a flaky fad? Culturally, fair skin seems to be associated with positive notions of class, lifestlye and beauty. In India, the upper priestly castes (Brahmins) were given the task of studing the scriptures while the lower castes toiled under the hot searing sun. I don’t think this has got to do with the English fascination that Indians still have – I think it’s got to do with the Aryans and/or the Turks and Muslims that invaded the dark land and established control. Color easily identified the servant from the master. Since in Hindu mythology, the gods were dark. Rama & Krishna – i.e. Vishnu were dark and so was Shiva. Check out the brilliant comic post on the brilliant blog Fly, You Fools on this phenomenon. I’ve lifted the image on the right from there. 

Companies have cashed in to this phenomenon. Recova, Garnier, Avon (VIP Fairness Cream), Fair Ever, Shahnaaz Hussain’s Fair One, Nivea’s Whitening Moisturizer & Multi-White Whitening Facial Foam, Vaseline are some of the brands and companies active in this industry which was @ 25% of Rs. 800 crores (men’s products pack in only a quarter of the Indian fairness pancake yet) but the slice of the manly pie is growing @ 20% per annum over the last 4 – 5 years (according to ORG – MARG). There was some news of even Wipro planning to enter the mens’ grooming market. Actually their FMCG unit (Santoor et al) – but some “soft”ware this must be! Even Clarins and Shiseido are offering their wares to Indian men. Thank God, the’ve left the kids out of this for now – else you’d have had a very wholesome family experience shopping at the Mac cosmetics store in a mall near you. Despite the fact that some of the confusing ads  – like Unilever’s logically puzling promise of “Gorepan se Kahin jyada saaf gorapan” – I like these companies, they are making their shareholders richer – whether some of them want to be fairer as well, is besides the point. I’ve myself creamed off a bit from the Emami counter in the past…I am strictly referring to the moolah here, not the loofah.

But a reality check is in order. It’s a myth that fairness creams can make you fair. Skin whitening creams are effective only if your pigment (which gives your skin the colour which your parents gave you) is in the epidermis – i.e. if your beauty is skin deep. If it unfortunately is not, then this alabaster ambition will remain an albatross. Thus, fairness creams can help remove a tan or discoloration in the top layer of the skin – they cannot make a dark person fair. And speaking of inheritance, if you cross a dark person with a fairer one, the resulting offspring is statistically more likely to be dark. This is simply because nature seems to make a better choice – and unfortunately does not look at ads appearing on television.

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Tilting My Cup…

26-Jun-10 3 Comments

So, finally….titling my cup towards your domain, and starting to blog! I guess, expecting the reverse – hoping that you tilt your cup/goblet/chalise/mug towards my domain (kaushalmahajan.com) and kill some time (at the least).

Have had a few sincere and a few casual and a lesser few sarcastic requests to start blogging all over the past years, and given that I have time to kill, thought why not.

And what better topic to dribble over the keys than football! I love the game and do harbour delusions of kicking around a bit. And now that we are in the KO stage – let the real World Cup begin. So heres how the sweet sixteen line up against each other. Its one of the craziest round of 16 thats come about and like any long suffering football lover, I hazard some predictions – some that are obvious and some putting my foot in my mouth and scoring some goals. Since a large section of this blog is also going to focus on investing psychology, I  wanted to relate the process of issuing predictions to the whole quirky experience of placing money behind bets in the real world of bulls and bears. So the second part of the post attempts to stick my neck out, make predictions and put money (in hypothetical currency – lets say, Jabulani units) behind each bet and then lets see what happens as the sixteen start their square dance (never mind that the pitch is not square). With the Euro being what it is and the honourable exits of the EU teams, I guess the Jabulani (or the Jabu, as a short form) might just be a better currency!

This is what I picked up from the internet regarding the predictions that came out from various quant desks.  Some of the models were not explicit regarding the composition of the round of 16 – I extrapolated that by using the probabilities that each such report mentioned per participating team. While I am aware that the UBS desk has predicted a Brazil victory, I am not able to open their pdf and therefore not able to complete the table. Earlier there was a war (here and here) between statisticians and the quants, but I guess these logits and odds are at odds and ends to the main subject of this post, so lets not get sidetracked. Kotak Mahindra’s looks surprisingly on target. Does that mean that we will have a brand new, very populous nation kicking around in the 2014 finals? High hopes! 🙂

While some of the experts (experts ≠ quants) are now predicting quite a few matches to end up in a penalty shoot out, I’ll reverse the order to suit my purpose and have my logical potshots first and then proceed backwards to the 45min drill. Here’s what we can make out from what we see of the 16:

  • Almost everyone is saying this, offering some digestives alongside – one of USA, S. Korea, Ghana and Uruguay will fill our vision on 6th of July semi-final. nice.
  • No more than one European team will make it to the semi-finals this year. Despite better club level playing structures and more money (again!), is this a portend of at least the football switching sides at half-time? The ball rolling away from Europe to other “emerging” pitches?
  • There’ll be a lot of fretting and fuming on some refreeing decision. FIFA will still look the other way when replays are shown to them. I hope your favourite(s) do not become the victim(s) of such intransigence.
  • Expect more surprises. I picked up this line from the web – that the round of 16 is the real world cup – thats when the real serious boys start kicking around. I don’t know – maybe that view is being fuelled by a feeling of disbelief that some of the marquee names that have departed were dealt the unluckiest cards by the hand of God. Not so – I think all  teams that are in the 16 have played good and have reasons to be there. So, I predict a few more upsets (ok. at least two?). Question is – are you willing to bet on it? How many Jabulanis are you willing to lob on an upset happening? Real money?

Which brings me to the second half – my predictions and what the experts (analysts) are saying and what prices (odds and spreads) are ruling at this moment. The post is in good time, the first match of the stage of 16 is about to be kicked off – so I’m not cheating. I may edit a few bits and bytes of the post later, but I promise to keep my prediction as it is! 🙂

This is what I think. The probabilities of winnings are as per the odds for each outcome offered at Ladbrokes on their home page, which may well be a proxy to what a certain section of the football watching world thinks – Ladbrokes’ house advantage notwithstanding. But thats not the point anyways – I’ve just included them there for illustration purposes. So, am I crazy knocking off a well balanced Spanish armada and advancing the Samurai Warriors? Maybe. However, I do wish I had 2 – 3 bottles of Asahi right now with me as I type – I like that smooth brew. Anyway, I think that Christiano was wronged in the previous world cup and the universe has some debt to repay and that the Japanese are one of the best current examples of the sum of parts being much larger than the whole.

Any real fotballing logic behind this? Well, not much. It’s a random pick – most things in the world are random, though many deny. Here’s what went through like lightning flash through my mind when I was randomizing:

  • Uruguay – Suarez and Forlan connect like crazy and the fact that they haven’t let a single one slip under the legs of their goalie clearly shows the class of their defending. Fucile’s perfect tackles help.
  • S. Korea – I feel too much has been made of Park Chu Young, though that free kick was good and he is generally young and good. Their need to mend their fences re their defences think tank.
  • USA – The intensity and toughness make up for the seeming lack of flair and talent.
  • Ghana – Did they score goals in the group stage? Ghana and England (!) are the only two sides that have qualified into the 16 scoring just a brace during the group stage!
  • Germany – Machinistic and moving the Jabulani well amongst each other.
  • England – Actually I’m tentative re Germany vs. England that’s why have bet only 3 Jabulanis on this match. I think it could be 1-1 or 0-0 and then England will get KO on PKs.
  • Argentina – Leo is one of the best, the very best in the world today. It’s the assists that he will provide that will work for me. Superstars dont always shine at the big stage – maybe they are overanalysed or that they are heavily guarded?
  • Holland – The Oranje have potential – loads of it, but have not fired yet. But given Slovakia, I think it should be easy for them to move ahead and shape up only to sadly get shipped out by Brazil.
  • Slovakia – Defences look weak. Although riding high on the win against Italy, I think one quick, early goal by the Oranje will get them to the ground and put their defence lines in disarray.
  • Brazil – Fabiano is looking fab. Goalkeeper is the best on the pitch today. I think their reputation preceeds them and some lesser teams just make way for them.
  • Chile – Would hate to see them lose to the Dungarees. I’ve always like this nation’s football – probably of the stars that played for this nation when I was younger!
  • Paraguay – I know I am being contrarian dunking Paraguay for they are turning heads like crazy. Playing good fast attacking football.
  • Japan – But they are also turning heads – not just of the watchers but also of the bricks in the wall as the Jabulani whizzes above and behind and into the nets during the Japanese free kicks.
  • Spain – Probably the most talented team in the Cup, but its difficult creating a symphony out of too many whizzes. Somehow the midfield has not supplied enough to Fabregas. While Fabiano is looking fab, this one has not. So far at least.
  • Portugal – They haven’t conceeded a goal. Draw out their talons and fight against the best and are not intimidated. And when they have faced poorer teams, they have absolutely crushed them. Maybe a long shot to the Cup but I think the Navigators will dribble around the Spanish Fury. Given fine balance I have allocated only 5 Jabulanis here.

Quod erat demonstrandum.

Now comes the tricky part of asset allocation. I’ll discuss some of these aspects in the investing pages later, when Jules Rimet has a new name emblazoned on his bottom. Jules Rimet Trophy really, he’d have to literally turn in his grave every 4 years to have a new country (or a repeat offender 😉 ) tatooed on his bottom if it really were that. Coming back (lack of beer makes me babble), I’ve put down more money (i.e. Jabulanis) on marquee names, dependable business and very less on the quarters onwards. If my bets are correct, then my longer term bets (on quarters onwards) should mulitply the winnings (if any) since the market has not yet started quoting on these anyways. I might just figure out a way to scale up based on the then extant odds and calculate how my hypothetical portfolio might have grown/shrunk, or might just down a few more asahis and forget about the whole thing! Why complicate matters when the real match is on….

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