2008/09 vs. 2010/11

The charting fun continues…

Here, I have highlighted the two massive cuts in recent times in the NIFTY chart since 1Jan’01. The US sub-prime/Lehman correction is in red while the current recessionary times are in dark aqua. Well, there is hardly much of a time span between the end of the red phase (6Mar’09) and the start of the second drop (5Nov’10) which obviously leads one to believe that the red and the aqua phases are part of the same pain that started once the sub-prime mess started. 20 months can hardly be called a recovery.

What I also did (ref chart below) was to phase shift the second bearish drop and superimpose it on the first drop to see how they compare. I know past patterns may or may not portend the future, but then all I said was that I wanted to have some charting fun! So, here is what is looks like. Please draw your own conclusions, for I know of none. Caveat Emptor, as always.

 But tell you what, reading all the stuff that is being talked about Europe, who knows what will happen. It’s like this:

HEADS: Merkel and Sarkozy do the impossible and let the European Commercial Bank’s (ECB’s) priniting presses run and run and run. I am happy since I do not have to update my chart. It happens just I thought it to.

TAILS: Politicians are for the polity, by the polity, of the polity. Crazy things happen and I have to redo the comparative chart all over again! 😦

This week the dice is expected to roll. Let’s see. While I don’t mind the extra effort involved in updating my wayward chart predictions, the way I sway depends very much on the way the dice rolls. I have a lot of hard earned money whose trail somewhere leads up to the presently idle printing presses of the ECB. But not all’s gloomy: there is one positive lesson to take from the above chart. Just look at the comparative chart and reflect on the 2008/’09 time period. You lived through it. Correct? Some of your positions would have been abandoned at a loss but if at all you initiated any fresh positions towards the end of the red phase, you’d have made up a good part of the drop, correct? The most important part is that you are alive (if you are reading this) and are still sane (if you are reading this!).

And here is the best and most audacious part. Chartbusting stuff really! How many years did the Pension Commissioner say I have till retirement? (By retirement I mean growing old and easing out of the active labour force). 20 more years? Ok. So I took the first chart, which shows the NIFTY’s march since 1Jan’01 and increased the scale by a 20 more years. Values of the index are blanks since who knows what tomorrow may bring…but do look at the resulting chart (shown on the right) and stare at it for a loooooong time. Do you see what I see? Ok, you know that I have played around with the axes of the chart but then that’s what I said at the start I would do right? i.e. having some charting fun.